We have all heard that 70 percent of change initiatives fail - but, now that we think about it, where exactly does that number come from? Turns out it was basically made up.
Marty Cagan on the Root Causes of Product Failure - video
The WEIRD bias in psychological studies - using US undergraduate students doesn't generalize the way most researchers think it does.
For a long time, I have been saying that HP's real-money prediction market has strongly outperformed their human analysts' predictions for printer sales. And for that same period of time, I have been wrong.